Favre and the Vikings: Good, not Great

“The Colts and the Saints are unbeaten, but are the Vikings the best team in the league?” This is the question that’s been posed all over ESPN for the past few days, and it’s a legitimate one. The Vikes are 9-1, and Favre, as much as I hate to say it, is playing out of his middle-aged mind. But therein lies the problem; the question of whether the Vikings are the best team in the NFL seems to be just another vehicle through which to deify Brett Favre. Now, the fact that I (sports) hate Favre more than any other player in the league (except for Jay Cutler) might be clouding my judgment here, and I may be reading too much into it. I mean, let’s be honest, the Vikings have the (2^nd) best running back in the league, two huge playmakers in Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, and a shut-down defense led by Nicolas Cage from Con Air (oops, that’s Jared Allen… honest mistake.) Regardless, here is my argument for why the Vikings are NOT as unstoppable as they’re making them out to be, and why we are, as always, giving Favre too much credit: First of all, the Vikings are 9-1 with wins over Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (twice), St. Louis, Baltimore and Seattle. Of these eight teams, two are at or above .500; the Ravens and the Packers. The Vikings edged out a win over Baltimore (who is not the Baltimore or old, mind you) but beat Favre’s former team convincingly on both occasions. However, of Green Bay’s six wins, four of them are against teams under .500. In nine wins, the Vikings have faced teams with an average of three wins on the season, while Saints opponents average four and Colts opponents five. You might see it as splitting heirs, but the stats don’t lie.

Don’t like stats? That’s fine. Let’s talk big games. Of the ten games the Vikings have played this season, I only see one as a legitimate “big game,” and that’s the Steelers game – the one they lost. I don’t consider either of the Green Bay wins to be of much consequence because Green Bay was overrated going into both those games and Favre or no Favre, the Vikings were supposed to win both games. The Steelers, after losing two heartbreakers to the Bears and Bengals, ripped off three in a row and were hosting the Vikings at home before a bye week. The Vikings had just squeaked by a reeling Ravens team, and were marching into Steel City in an effort to go 7-0 for the first time in Favre’s career. They lost the game 27-17, and while Favre threw for 334 yards, he also threw zero touchdown passes and a pick. Back to the stats real quick; let’s just take a look at the numbers for Favre, Manning and Drew Brees in their big games this season:

Favre @ Steelers (week 7): 33/50, 334 yds., 0 TDs, 1 INTs (L, 27-17)

Manning vs. Patriots (week 10): 28/44, 327 yds., 4 TDs, 2 INTs (W, 35-34)

Brees vs. Giants (week 6): 23/30, 369 yds., 4 TDs, 0 INTs (W, 48-27)*

*both teams 5-0

Lastly, I want to dispel the rumors of Favre being an “ageless wonder.” Understand, I respect the way Favre has played this year. That last second touchdown pass to Greg Lewis to beat San Francisco was one of the best throws I have seen since I started watching football. There’s no question that the guy has played great football this year. But also understand that he’s playing IN A DOME. Look back at the end of last season, when Favre was playing in New York. After Thanksgiving, Favre and the Jets went 2-4 and Favre threw twice as many INTs as touchdowns. Flip the pages back another year to the NFC Championship Game against the Giants in Green Bay. Favre threw the game clinching INT and was rattled by the weather from the very beginning. I’m not saying that playing in the warm confines of a dome has everything to do with Favre’s success, but I am saying it has something to do with it. Take a look at the rest of Minnesota’s schedule for this season:

Vs. Chicago

@ Arizona

Vs. Cincinnati

@ Carolina

@ Chicago

Vs. New York Giants

They get the Bears in the dome this week, then go to the desert to face Arizona. They get the Bengals at home then travel south to Carolina. Then, finally, Favre will be tested in the cold at Chicago. (On a personal note, my sports-hate-o-meter will be redlined that night, with Favre facing off against Cutler. Do I root for the Vikings so I can see Cutler’s take-my-ball-and-go-home pouty-cry-baby face? Or, do I root for the Bears so I don’t have to light myself on fire every time Favre puts on an exaggerated touchdown celebration, and the announcers gush, “He’s just a kid out there having fun!” Ugh.)

Here’s the kicker, though: the Vikings will sit out the Wild Card and host the Divisional game. Then, regardless, they will most likely play the NFC Championship game in a dome (their own or the Superdome). Then, if they win, they go to the Superbowl in Miami. That means that for the rest of the year, Favre only has to play one more cold-weather game. History doesn’t lie. The 2007 NFC Championship game; the latter half of the ’08 season; week 7 of the ’09 season (in case you weren’t sure, Pittsburgh is a bit nippy in October). Do we see a pattern emerging here?

Look, the Vikings are a great team. (Ugh, this is going to trigger my gag reflex) Favre is a great quarterback. But the fact remains they’ve had a semi-soft schedule, the benefit of an indoor facility, and have lost the one big game they’ve played this season. Manning and Brees, although they haven’t exactly had murderous schedules, have delivered in the heat, the cold and everywhere in between. They’ve won big games. They are undefeated. So no, the Vikings are not the best team in the league. They are the 3^rd best. Colts. Saints. Vikings. Bet.